Warming Up

This weekend’s cold spell will be that of just recent memory as we progress through this work week. However, we will stay rather unsettled for the majority of it.

For your Tuesday, expect a cloudy and dreary day with some snow and rain in the forecast. Our high will make it to the upper 30s, so the light snow we see at daybreak will mix with rain in the afternoon. As was the case with the synoptic snow  this weekend (meaning large-scale snow area, not lake enhanced snow), there isn’t a lot of moisture available with the system. Therefore, I only expect an inch or so of accumulation. It could be, however, enough to slicken the morning drive. We’ll dry out for Wednesday but look for another round of precipitation Thursday. This should be all rain as we will top out back into the 40s.

It appears as of now the upcoming weekend will be dry. Stay tuned though for any updates with the forecast.

You can follow Craig on Twitter! His account is found @ytownwx

Now the Cold and Wind

Overnight as the arctic blast came in, we received 3 to 4 inches of snow in the Mahoning Valley. While the main snow is over, a few persistent lake effect snowbands have developed from Lake Huron and enhanced the Lake Erie squalls. This prompted the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for Trumbull, Stark and Mahoning counties through 4 pm and a winter storm warning for Portage and Summit counties until the same time (additional warnings and advisories can be found on the NWS Cle webpage on my blogroll).

In the warning locations, additional accumulation of 2 to 4 inches today is expected as those bands continue. For us in the advisory counties, light snow will be off and on but the primary effect today will be blowing and drifting of the snow which has already fallen. We may see an additional inch or so if we get under a persistent band.

As the air dries out this afternoon, the snow will come to a stop. However, the wind and the cold will continue. Our temperatures will fall to around 14 degrees overnight. With the winds, wind chills will be in the 0 to -5 degree range overnight, so bundle up! This is by far the coldest air of the season. We will “warm” to the upper 20s with scattered snow flurries and snow showers for Sunday.

 

Follow Craig on Twitter for more up-to-the-minute weather forecasts and details on Youngstown weather. Craig can be found @ytownwx

It’s Armagedd……Oh wait, it’s just Snow

I’ve found it funny as the computer models have come together this week on the impending round of snow and cold, how people have been reacting. Let me rewind just few days over two years ago. The day was Saturday February 6, 2010. We woke up to anywhere from 15 to 20 inches of snow across the valley. Last winter, Youngstown reported 103.7 inches of snow.

However, this year we’ve “only” accumulated 37.0” which is only 3.1” below what we should be at this time in the winter. Since we have yet to see an accumulating snow event of over a few inches at a time, every time we hear the words “we have a round of snow coming” my phone blows up with, “Craig, how much snow are we going to get? Craig is it going to be bad out?” and others.

Main point here: once again this weekend, we’re going to see some accumulating snow, but it will fit right in with the systems we’ve had all winter long. We’ll see a quick shot at a few inches and it won’t really bother too many people. If I was predicting this 365 days ago, we’d simply take it with a grain of salt and say “oh, no big deal.” So, don’t worry about cancelling those weekend plans. Just be prepared to take a little extra time when things get slick.

Very light snow has begun here in Youngstown this afternoon. For awhile this morning, it seemed as if the slow movement of the storm system out of Canada would add a little to my forecast from yesterday. However, there is still not a whole lot of moisture available with this system, so a forecast of 2 to 4 inches still seems reasonable given the circumstances. Locally higher amounts will occur where we get the added lake effect snow, but this will obviously be closer to the lake, especially in extreme northeast Ohio and in northwest PA. We will see scattered snow off and on through Sunday.

The even bigger story will be the COLD temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. With the passage of the front, the air that has been trapped all season in Canada will find a home over the Great Lakes. With some added wind, our wind chills may fall below zero Saturday night and Sunday morning. Saturday’s highs will only be in the lower 20s with the scattered snow showers.

Next Round of Snow…..and COLD!

In a winter where wintry headlines have been all too uncommon, we will certainly turn it around this weekend. But just how long will this pattern last?

I have been talking all week about the big Arctic invasion that will take place this weekend, and I have no reason to change my forecast now. We got an inch or so of snow yesterday, but that will be merely a distant memory as sunny skies and temperatures near 40 are forecast today. As Friday dawns, however a strong cold front currently located in southern Canada, will be moving south bringing with it a lot of the Canadian cold air which has been trapped there for most of the season.

The first part of Friday will remain dry and fairly average in terms of temperature. The chance of precip will begin any time after 3 pm. Since we will be in the mid or upper 30s, we may see light rain or a mix of rain and snow at first, but it will become all snow after dark. It looks as if we will stay with only 2 inches (locally up to 3″) by Saturday afternoon. This will not be a huge deal. If you’re traveling towards Lake Erie, we may see up to 5 inches there as we should get a little fetch off the lake for some lake-effect snow.

In the temperature department, Saturday night will be the coldest with Saturday and Sunday being cold for highs. Saturday we’ll be in the lower 20s, with temperatures dipping into the low teens Saturday night. Sunday, another weak system will come through bringing maybe a few scattered snow showers, but a bigger story will be a little more wind, with highs in the upper 20s. This cold spell shouldn’t last too long, as we are projected to be back into the upper 30s at the beginning of next week. Of course a lot can change with this, so stay tuned.

Enjoy your Thursday, all!

Updated Wednesday Snow Forecast

Well, as promised the snow has started over the Mahoning Valley this morning. As I said yesterday though, there isn’t a lot of available moisture for the day. That being said, we will be able to add up an inch or two before all is said and done, but as high pressure moves in later this evening, the snow will come to an end just as fast as it began.

For Thursday, we will see a pretty decent day, with highs near 40 degrees and a mixture of sun and clouds. There has been a lot of speculation about what will be happening this weekend with the cold and potential for snow. As soon as we get rid of this system for your day today, I’ll take a better look at the models and update a forecast for the weekend. At first glance though, it appears that the cold will have more of an impact than the snow will. However, in a winter that hasn’t seen much snow, if you like having to shovel the drive and look at it fall – you will most likely get a wish again this weekend.

Limited Snow Potential

The word “snow” is FINALLY back in the forecast here in the Mahoning Valley over the next 24 to 30 hours, but unfortunately (if you like snow) there isn’t a lot of moisture with the cold front that will be moving through.

The system will be moving in for the overnight period into your Wednesday morning, but should be over in plenty of time for the afternoon rush hour. We may see up to an inch in places away from the lake such as Mansfield, Akron, Canton and here in Youngstown, but that will be about all. Temperatures Wednesday will only be in the low 30s with the cloud and snow cover. We should warm up a little Thursday before that cold shot I was talking about yesterday, still forecast to occur this weekend.

 

 

Will we Actually see Winter???

The groundhog saw his shadow last week, and thus promised six more weeks of winter. While statistics show the groundhog really is not all that accurate (read this for more info: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php#phil) maybe this was the “jump start” we needed for real winter weather.

Okay guys, don’t get your hopes up…I’m not predicting a major blizzard over the next week, but I can just about guarantee the temperatures later this week and into the weekend may actually be a little more winter-like.

As meteorologists, we often look at a few different computer models to determine temperature. Obviously, the longer out in a forecast period you go, the more uncertainty there is. However, this week it seems as if a few ingredients will come together to bring a more winter-like air mass into the region. The first clue is a cold front which is projected to come through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Behind this, two maps clue us in that a colder pattern will set up. The winds both at high elevations and at the surface will be coming out of the northwest (from Canada) and thus allow for temperatures to fall. However, as we progress towards the end of the week, ahead of another trough for this weekend, winds will shift back out of the southwest (warmer) and bring us back to the above average readings we’ve become all too accustomed to this winter.

As we head to the upcoming weekend, a very large trough will be impacting the Great Lakes and northeastern US. This is shown on the following map:

This map is now out of date.

In general on this map you can tell that there is a big dip in our region for the upcoming weekend. This tells us in general that temperatures will be colder as the air from Canada will be allowed to seep into our region. Just how cold this will be is shown in another map, the surface and 850 millibar temperatures. However, since it is only Monday, these can change through time by a few degrees, so I’m going to hold off on that…just in general, realize this weekend should actually feel like winter.

Temperature Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Tuesday:  Upper 30s.
Wednesday: Middle 30s.
Thursday: Around 40.
Friday: Upper 30s.
Saturday: Low to mid 20s.
Sunday: Around 30. (May see lows around 10 degrees Sunday morning)

Meteorology Explained: Types of Winter Precipitation

I told you I’d save it for a sunny day, so while we enjoy a rare weather phenomena today (yes, for northeast Ohio, I’m talking about the sun) I’d like to write about a topic that gets a lot of attention: the meteorology behind the different types of winter precipitation.

As I have said many times before, meteorology not only deals with conditions at earth’s surface, but also since the atmosphere is three-dimensional, deals with conditions all the way up through the troposphere. The types of precipitation: rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain, all depend on the “thermal profile” of the troposphere. The diagram below shows the exact meaning of this.

Photo Courtesy Steve Cross

Okay, so what does this all mean? As you can tell, cold air needs to be present in the atmosphere for moisture to be present. Most precipitation occurs from a clash of a warm and cool (sometimes even cold) air mass. From the diagram, you can see at the top of the troposphere it is all snow. (There is another process which uses rain without the development of snow first [called the supercooled warm rain process] which I’m not going to go into for simplicity’s sake). This is because as you ascend in the troposphere, the temperature decreases. However, when a temperature inversion occurs, a layer of warm air invades the lower atmosphere. This inversion can be caused by a warm front, but in general this means that while you ascend in the troposphere it gets warmer before it gets colder. This is the area in red shading in our diagram. The type of precipitation which forms depends on exactly how thick this layer of warm air is, and is why it is extremely difficult to forecast some winter storms.

Rain occurs when the thermal profile is all warm air in the lower atmosphere. This is depicted in the farthest right part of the diagram.

Moving left, our next type of precip is freezing rain. Freezing rain is snow which falls through the temperature inversion and melts the snow to become rain. However, since right at the surface temperatures are 32 degrees F or below, these rain particles freeze on contact and is known of as freezing rain. You can see now why this is very difficult to predict. Meteorologists have a map which helps attempt to predict ice events. It is the 850 millibar temperature map, which gives the temperature in the lower levels of the atmosphere. However, as you can expect, one degree makes a lot of difference as to what type of precipitation occurs, so forecasters are walking a fine-line with this type of weather.

Sleet then, occurs with a larger pocket of cold air at the surface and doesn’t spend as much time in the warm air. This means that, as the snow falls into the warm air it starts melting. However, since it goes back into the cold air more quickly than the freezing rain did, it isn’t entirely melted. It re-freezes when it comes back into the cold air and often bounces off the ground. This then, doesn’t freeze on contact and is less threatening than freezing rain.

Snow, of course, is when the entire region in the lower troposphere is cold and no melting takes place. The snowflake remains a snowflake when reaching the surface.

No matter what type of wintry precipitation falls, driving is always hazardous when the temperature drops. When we forecast any type of precipitation, you should take extra caution while outdoors. Freezing rain is the most dangerous, as when it accumulates the ice can cause extreme problems. Sleet and snow accumulations, as you well know, can do the same as can rain. I can go into greater science behind the types of precipitation, but this I believe will help the common person understand the basic science behind the different types of precipitation. If you have any questions, please let me know!

Slick Thursday Morning

One of the most difficult things to predict in northeast Ohio is winter weather. This is especially true when the surface temperatures are forecast to be near 32 degrees. Since the atmosphere is three-dimensional, the temperature of the upper atmosphere also plays a role in what happens at the surface.

I can get into the meteorology behind the atmosphere and what determines which type of precipitation, but let’s save that for a sunny day. For tonight, just be aware that a low pressure system will be moving in from the west, spreading moisture over the area beginning late tonight and continuing off and on into Thursday evening.

TONIGHT: While temperatures are above freezing, we will just have a mix of rain and snow showers. This will be light through midnight or so. Thereafter, as temperatures dip to around 30 degrees for the overnight, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible. A winter weather advisory has been issued until 6 AM THURSDAY for parts of the area, including northeast inland Ohio.

THURSDAY: Models predict that the temperature should warm enough by daybreak Thursday to turn all of the precipitation back to rain and snow, ending the threat of any freezing rain. Highs will be near 39.

You may need to slow down for the morning rush hour. These are general times and the area should warm through the morning. You can never be too careful while driving, so just use extra caution. Any ice accumulations will not be significant, but enough to cause slick spots on untreated roads and sidewalks.

Fairly Calm

For the remainder of Tuesday and most of Wednesday, high pressure will be taking control of our weather. The next system to affect our region will be late Wednesday and into Thursday.

Don’t expect much in the way of sun for Tuesday afternoon, and we will definitely be colder than we were yesterday as the strong cold front has pushed through the region, bringing in colder air in behind it. Highs will remain in the mid 30s for this afternoon. With skies clearing somewhat tonight, we will make it down to around 22 for your low temperature. For Wednesday, we should actually see some sunshine, but remaining cool with highs again staying around 36 degrees. For the next system Wednesday night and Thursday, at night we will see the chance for snow showers but in the day, that snow will be all rain. Thursday’s highs will be in the lower 40s. We’ll probably fine-tune this as we get closer, but the models agree for the most part on the timing of the next system.