Warming Up

This weekend’s cold spell will be that of just recent memory as we progress through this work week. However, we will stay rather unsettled for the majority of it.

For your Tuesday, expect a cloudy and dreary day with some snow and rain in the forecast. Our high will make it to the upper 30s, so the light snow we see at daybreak will mix with rain in the afternoon. As was the case with the synoptic snow  this weekend (meaning large-scale snow area, not lake enhanced snow), there isn’t a lot of moisture available with the system. Therefore, I only expect an inch or so of accumulation. It could be, however, enough to slicken the morning drive. We’ll dry out for Wednesday but look for another round of precipitation Thursday. This should be all rain as we will top out back into the 40s.

It appears as of now the upcoming weekend will be dry. Stay tuned though for any updates with the forecast.

You can follow Craig on Twitter! His account is found @ytownwx

Now the Cold and Wind

Overnight as the arctic blast came in, we received 3 to 4 inches of snow in the Mahoning Valley. While the main snow is over, a few persistent lake effect snowbands have developed from Lake Huron and enhanced the Lake Erie squalls. This prompted the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for Trumbull, Stark and Mahoning counties through 4 pm and a winter storm warning for Portage and Summit counties until the same time (additional warnings and advisories can be found on the NWS Cle webpage on my blogroll).

In the warning locations, additional accumulation of 2 to 4 inches today is expected as those bands continue. For us in the advisory counties, light snow will be off and on but the primary effect today will be blowing and drifting of the snow which has already fallen. We may see an additional inch or so if we get under a persistent band.

As the air dries out this afternoon, the snow will come to a stop. However, the wind and the cold will continue. Our temperatures will fall to around 14 degrees overnight. With the winds, wind chills will be in the 0 to -5 degree range overnight, so bundle up! This is by far the coldest air of the season. We will “warm” to the upper 20s with scattered snow flurries and snow showers for Sunday.

 

Follow Craig on Twitter for more up-to-the-minute weather forecasts and details on Youngstown weather. Craig can be found @ytownwx

It’s Armagedd……Oh wait, it’s just Snow

I’ve found it funny as the computer models have come together this week on the impending round of snow and cold, how people have been reacting. Let me rewind just few days over two years ago. The day was Saturday February 6, 2010. We woke up to anywhere from 15 to 20 inches of snow across the valley. Last winter, Youngstown reported 103.7 inches of snow.

However, this year we’ve “only” accumulated 37.0” which is only 3.1” below what we should be at this time in the winter. Since we have yet to see an accumulating snow event of over a few inches at a time, every time we hear the words “we have a round of snow coming” my phone blows up with, “Craig, how much snow are we going to get? Craig is it going to be bad out?” and others.

Main point here: once again this weekend, we’re going to see some accumulating snow, but it will fit right in with the systems we’ve had all winter long. We’ll see a quick shot at a few inches and it won’t really bother too many people. If I was predicting this 365 days ago, we’d simply take it with a grain of salt and say “oh, no big deal.” So, don’t worry about cancelling those weekend plans. Just be prepared to take a little extra time when things get slick.

Very light snow has begun here in Youngstown this afternoon. For awhile this morning, it seemed as if the slow movement of the storm system out of Canada would add a little to my forecast from yesterday. However, there is still not a whole lot of moisture available with this system, so a forecast of 2 to 4 inches still seems reasonable given the circumstances. Locally higher amounts will occur where we get the added lake effect snow, but this will obviously be closer to the lake, especially in extreme northeast Ohio and in northwest PA. We will see scattered snow off and on through Sunday.

The even bigger story will be the COLD temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. With the passage of the front, the air that has been trapped all season in Canada will find a home over the Great Lakes. With some added wind, our wind chills may fall below zero Saturday night and Sunday morning. Saturday’s highs will only be in the lower 20s with the scattered snow showers.

Next Round of Snow…..and COLD!

In a winter where wintry headlines have been all too uncommon, we will certainly turn it around this weekend. But just how long will this pattern last?

I have been talking all week about the big Arctic invasion that will take place this weekend, and I have no reason to change my forecast now. We got an inch or so of snow yesterday, but that will be merely a distant memory as sunny skies and temperatures near 40 are forecast today. As Friday dawns, however a strong cold front currently located in southern Canada, will be moving south bringing with it a lot of the Canadian cold air which has been trapped there for most of the season.

The first part of Friday will remain dry and fairly average in terms of temperature. The chance of precip will begin any time after 3 pm. Since we will be in the mid or upper 30s, we may see light rain or a mix of rain and snow at first, but it will become all snow after dark. It looks as if we will stay with only 2 inches (locally up to 3″) by Saturday afternoon. This will not be a huge deal. If you’re traveling towards Lake Erie, we may see up to 5 inches there as we should get a little fetch off the lake for some lake-effect snow.

In the temperature department, Saturday night will be the coldest with Saturday and Sunday being cold for highs. Saturday we’ll be in the lower 20s, with temperatures dipping into the low teens Saturday night. Sunday, another weak system will come through bringing maybe a few scattered snow showers, but a bigger story will be a little more wind, with highs in the upper 20s. This cold spell shouldn’t last too long, as we are projected to be back into the upper 30s at the beginning of next week. Of course a lot can change with this, so stay tuned.

Enjoy your Thursday, all!

Updated Wednesday Snow Forecast

Well, as promised the snow has started over the Mahoning Valley this morning. As I said yesterday though, there isn’t a lot of available moisture for the day. That being said, we will be able to add up an inch or two before all is said and done, but as high pressure moves in later this evening, the snow will come to an end just as fast as it began.

For Thursday, we will see a pretty decent day, with highs near 40 degrees and a mixture of sun and clouds. There has been a lot of speculation about what will be happening this weekend with the cold and potential for snow. As soon as we get rid of this system for your day today, I’ll take a better look at the models and update a forecast for the weekend. At first glance though, it appears that the cold will have more of an impact than the snow will. However, in a winter that hasn’t seen much snow, if you like having to shovel the drive and look at it fall – you will most likely get a wish again this weekend.

Limited Snow Potential

The word “snow” is FINALLY back in the forecast here in the Mahoning Valley over the next 24 to 30 hours, but unfortunately (if you like snow) there isn’t a lot of moisture with the cold front that will be moving through.

The system will be moving in for the overnight period into your Wednesday morning, but should be over in plenty of time for the afternoon rush hour. We may see up to an inch in places away from the lake such as Mansfield, Akron, Canton and here in Youngstown, but that will be about all. Temperatures Wednesday will only be in the low 30s with the cloud and snow cover. We should warm up a little Thursday before that cold shot I was talking about yesterday, still forecast to occur this weekend.

 

 

Will we Actually see Winter???

The groundhog saw his shadow last week, and thus promised six more weeks of winter. While statistics show the groundhog really is not all that accurate (read this for more info: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php#phil) maybe this was the “jump start” we needed for real winter weather.

Okay guys, don’t get your hopes up…I’m not predicting a major blizzard over the next week, but I can just about guarantee the temperatures later this week and into the weekend may actually be a little more winter-like.

As meteorologists, we often look at a few different computer models to determine temperature. Obviously, the longer out in a forecast period you go, the more uncertainty there is. However, this week it seems as if a few ingredients will come together to bring a more winter-like air mass into the region. The first clue is a cold front which is projected to come through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Behind this, two maps clue us in that a colder pattern will set up. The winds both at high elevations and at the surface will be coming out of the northwest (from Canada) and thus allow for temperatures to fall. However, as we progress towards the end of the week, ahead of another trough for this weekend, winds will shift back out of the southwest (warmer) and bring us back to the above average readings we’ve become all too accustomed to this winter.

As we head to the upcoming weekend, a very large trough will be impacting the Great Lakes and northeastern US. This is shown on the following map:

This map is now out of date.

In general on this map you can tell that there is a big dip in our region for the upcoming weekend. This tells us in general that temperatures will be colder as the air from Canada will be allowed to seep into our region. Just how cold this will be is shown in another map, the surface and 850 millibar temperatures. However, since it is only Monday, these can change through time by a few degrees, so I’m going to hold off on that…just in general, realize this weekend should actually feel like winter.

Temperature Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Tuesday:  Upper 30s.
Wednesday: Middle 30s.
Thursday: Around 40.
Friday: Upper 30s.
Saturday: Low to mid 20s.
Sunday: Around 30. (May see lows around 10 degrees Sunday morning)