Location. Location. Location!

What do the words “location, location, location” mean to you? For many people, this is the old slogan from Disney. For meteorologists in the last 24 hours over the eastern part of the country, this was critical to the weather conditions for the day Monday.

As you are all aware, a winter storm warning was up for northeastern Ohio last night, as the threat of a large accumulation of snow worried local residents. Since trees have already begun blooming, plants are now growing, and spring is in full swing, the threat of heavy and wet snow could have proved damaging. The ingredients were all there. The jet stream had pushed south allowing for below average temperatures to filter into the area. A low pressure area was deepening and working up the eastern seaboard. One thing was missing on Monday in northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania though – precipitation. What was the problem???

Location, location, location!

Call your attention to the “L” just off the Jersey coast. These were the observations early this morning. That “L” is the center of the low pressure responsible for a deluge of rain up the east coast, and yes quite a bit of snow across parts of the interior northeast from southern New York state through the mountains of central Pennsylvania. The counterclockwise motion of low pressure systems in the northern hemisphere allowed the cold air to wrap around the low and push it southward into these locations.

In a report from Wunderground, some snow totals from today as of 7pm were: 10″ in Newfield, NY; 13.6″ in Laurel Summit, PA; 11″ in Sylvania, PA; 5″ in Aurora, WV; and 5″ in Keysers Ridge, MD.

If the center of the low pressure would have been where the models forecast it Saturday night, these snowfall totals could have easily been over eastern Ohio and western PA. As for the rest of the night, as the low continues to progress away from the area, there is still some moisture available for some lake-effect rain or snow showers to impact the area. In fact, as of 835pm, a band of light precip was extending from Ashtabula into northern Trumbull counties in Ohio and Erie and Crawford counties in northwest PA. Meadville, PA in Crawford county was reporting light snow and 34 degrees at 8pm. Even if this band does make it into the Youngstown area, it won’t be a problem.

Also, winds will continue to subside as the low moves away. It will remain breezy through Tuesday afternoon, but nowhere near as windy as Monday. We may see gusts in the 20 to 30mph range the first half of the day Tuesday.

Whether you were excited about getting snow and upset the system was farther east than it could have been, or were relieved because no snow occurred today, I want you to remember one thing: location, location, location! It makes a big difference in meteorology!

Late Season Winter Storm Taking Shape

Since we really didn’t have winter during winter, why not have it at the end of April?

While I don’t know the mind of mother nature, as a weather forecaster I’m trying. For the next 24 to 36 hours, that’s going to be a rather difficult task. As of 9pm this evening, a large area of low pressure was located over the Carolina coast and moving northward into the northeast. This low will deepen, and continue to tap into moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and wrap this moisture into the region.

We have already seen the outer fringes of this tonight as some light rain showers have begun. Right now the thermal profile in the atmosphere is still rather warm, so the precipitation is all rain. As the counterclockwise rotation continues to deepen in the low, more cold air from Canada will wrap into the region and continue to cool off the atmosphere with height. This will allow for precipitation to turn to snow on Monday over much of central and western Pennsylvania and extreme eastern Ohio.

Below is one of the computer models for late Monday morning. As you can see, eastern Ohio is located right on the outer edge of the precipitation. This is why a slight deviation from the forecast track can mean a very large difference in the snowfall.

There is a VERY LARGE difference between forecasting a winter storm in January or February than in late April. With the higher sun angle and warmer ground, forecasting snowfall accumulations is an even more daunting task than normal.

As it appears at this time, the heaviest snowfall will be over the mountains of central and northwestern PA, where as much as 18” of snow is possible. Here at the lower elevations, accumulations will be much less but this won’t lessen the impacts. The snow will be extremely heavy and wet. This coupled with the leaves already on the trees and strong winds expected, downed limbs as well as downed power lines are possible. Road conditions shouldn’t be as bad as it would be if this was the middle of winter. However, in the heaviest snow along with the strong winds, visibilities may be lower.

Forecast Snowfall Totals for Select Areas

Youngstown/Hubbard/New Castle: 3 to 6 inches of wet snow…primarily on grassy surfaces.

Pittsburgh and surrounding areas: 2 to 5 inches of wet snow…primarily on grassy surfaces.

Buffalo, NY: 4 to 7 inches of wet snow.

Mountains of NW Pennsylvania to Johnstown, PA: 1o to 16 inches in higher elevations…less at the surface

With winter storms of this magnitude, forecasts can change in a hurry. Stay tuned for later updates on the storm. For us here in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, a WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect from 4am Monday through 3pm Tuesday.

 

Craig is on Twitter! Follow him @ytownwx

Risk of Severe Lessened this Afternoon

The storm system responsible for the tornado outbreak on Saturday is moving eastward through the lower Great Lakes this afternoon. However, the energy it once had is all but a memory – at least in thunderstorm coverage. The jet stream in the lower atmosphere is allowing for breezy conditions to mix to the surface ahead of the front. Therefore, a wind advisory is in effect through 10pm for all of the Mahoning Valley. Even after the front comes through this evening, as high pressure quickly builds in, we should continue to see the wind for the early part of the night.

The front does not have much moisture with it this afternoon, and the conditions aren’t that favorable for thunderstorm development. Yesterday, it appeared that we may see some storms and with the enhanced wind threat, could have seen some damaging wind in the thunderstorm risk. With the cold front now over central Ohio, the risk of any storms is lower, and only isolated rain is expected. Most areas of the area should remain dry this afternoon.

Tuesday will be much nicer, but with a little temperature contrast from today. Highs will only make it to the upper 50s on Tuesday, but we will see the sun!

 

First Glance of Easter Weekend

As we approach any holiday weekend, the weather is always on everyone’s mind. Easter is one of those holidays where we can have a snow event, a “normal” spring day, or a record heat wave. This year, I think we’ll go with the second option.

For the majority of your Friday and Saturday we will follow suit with this plan. Sunday we will deviate just a bit. The average high from April 4 through the 9th is between 55 and 56 degrees. Friday should be in the middle 50s and Saturday a little warmer near 60. We should see plenty of sunshine during this time as high pressure is forecast to keep the precipitation to our south.

A storm system will move into the region Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures will increase ahead of the front Sunday, and we can make a run at 70 degrees. There are a few model differences on timing of the precip, but we should be dry for morning Easter services. We will fine tune this forecast as the week goes on, but this is your first glance at what you can expect. Have a good week, everyone!

Just in time for the Weekend!

We’ve had an absolutely incredible weather week in much of the eastern third of the country. Record highs have been broken from Minnesota to Chicago to the eastern seaboard, including here in Youngstown! In fact, we’ve broken multiple records this week. A fun stat I researched yesterday was that our low temperature dipped to 55 degrees Wednesday morning. Our average HIGH is 48 degrees – yes our LOW temperature was 7 degrees above our average HIGH. Awesome, right?

Well, yes and today we have another easy shot at breaking a record again. Set in 1938, our previous record stands at 75 degrees. Our forecast high for today is 80, so let’s add another new record to the list we’ve set this week.

Something’s gotta give, doesn’t it???

Well, for the weekend…….it will!

As I mentioned in my last post, a cut-off low pressure system is currently located over Texas and Oklahoma. Since it is “cut off” from the flow of the jet stream, it isn’t moving much and actually has been responsible for some severe weather in the southern Plains and southeast as well as a lot of flooding. It will begin to move towards us here in the Ohio Valley for…..yes, the weekend.

Friday will be mostly dry, except in the far west regions of Ohio. Towards evening and overnight into Saturday is where eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania get in on the action. Saturday and Sunday won’t be all day wash-outs, but definitely will see off and on showers and as the system exits, cooler air. Sunday’s highs will “only” be around 60 degrees. Before you start getting angry, that’s still 10 degrees above where we should be this time of the year.

You can follow Craig on Twitter! His account is @ytownwx

How Long will this Pattern Last?

With the Spring season now officially upon us, it doesn’t seem as abnormal to be forecasting a high of 80 degrees today, right? Not really…we’re still well above average and will most likely smash a record high today. The old record for Youngstown today is 74 set in 1976, so this will most likely need to be updated after today. With this long stretch of extremely warm weather for March continuing today, how long is it actually going to last?

Well, the answer will probably not please most of you. While you knew deep down it had to change at some point, the timing of the change is what is bad.

Here is 1 computer model for Friday night 8pm. You notice precipitation moving into the region from the west. This is in response to a low pressure system currently bringing severe weather and heavy rain to the central and southern Plains. This low is currently “cut off” from the flow of the upper levels of the atmosphere, so it won’t move much the middle of this week. However, once it gets going again, it will work into our region and leave us with a rather crummy weekend as it appears now. Also with the cloud cover and dip in the jet stream, cooler air will filter into the area. Don’t worry, our temperatures will still be 10 to 15 degrees above average.

While no major areas of precipitation are forecast through Friday night as it appears now, with the increased temperatures, we’re in a rather summer-like pattern. As we know from the past, sometimes in the summer an isolated storm or two will pop up from time to time in the afternoon. Therefore, we can’t rule out one of these on any given day. Other than that – ENJOY THIS!

 

You can follow Craig on Twitter. His account is @ytownwx

After Monday……

For those of you who seem to have a “case of the Mondays,” I’m going to make your day that much worse. I promise though, it all goes up from there!!

A storm system will progress through the region on Monday, but that will pave the way for a fantastic Tuesday and Wednesday. For the end of the week, models are not quite consistent on a forecast yet, so I’m going to hold off on that front.

In detail, Monday will feature cloudy skies, but still above average temperatures. The chance of rain will increase later in the morning, and we should see the skies open up during the afternoon. The front itself will move through the region overnight Tuesday, so we may see some enhanced showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder through early Tuesday. After the front moves through, Tuesday and Wednesday will be something similar to late April and not middle March.

Monday will be the “cooler” of the days this week, with highs in the upper 50s. However, Tuesday and Wednesday will soar into the upper 60s. Keep in mind, the average high from March 12-14 in Youngstown is 44-45 degrees.

And……Back to Winter

The winds of change have roared through the Mahoning Valley overnight behind the storm system responsible for the deadly tornado outbreak. We got lucky, as the warm front was much slower than forecast, and thus our moisture and instability were greatly lower than the dynamics to our south. This system has shifted our wind directions to the northwest out of Canada. As another system comes through late tonight, moisture will be again on the increase – this time in the form of snow.

This next cold front is currently approaching the region. As of Saturday afternoon, it was located through Michigan and Wisconsin. The front itself has little moisture to work with, but with lake enhancement, has been responsible for snow this afternoon as it has come through the upper midwest. This will be the same situation that will unfold as the system comes through our area overnight. Ahead of the front, don’t expect more than light snow. However, the lake will enhance the moisture behind it and should keep light snow in the forecast through Monday.

We may see an inch or so at max out of this system, enough to remind everyone that it still is the beginning of March. Temperatures will be (shockingly) below average, with highs on Sunday around 31 and 29 for Monday. The average high for Youngstown on March 4/5 is 41 degrees. Don’t worry, we will have a MAJOR warm-up for the middle of the week. Let the roller coaster begin!

Spring Storm Threat Coming Early

In a winter that hasn’t really felt like winter at all, we have fast-forwarded to spring rather quickly. The last day of February featured a tornado outbreak in the midwest, from Kansas to Kentucky killing at least 12. Tomorrow will feature another classic set-up for severe thunderstorms and quite possibly another (worse than Wednesday) tornado outbreak. For us in the Mahoning Valley, this means an increased chance of thunderstorms again – with damaging winds the main threat.

A large strong area of low pressure is currently moving across the Rockies and will move eastward and eventually northeastward later tonight and into Friday. As the low deepens, it will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and aided by the low level jet stream, will create ripe conditions for an area of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The highest threat for this will be in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

This is the outlook issued this afternoon by the Storm Prediction Center. It shows in graphic form what I said in the last paragraph. For us in the Mahoning Valley, we will be still in the warm sector of the system, and thus will also have a threat for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Shear (or the change of wind direction and speeds with height in the atmosphere) will be the strongest over the areas in pink, but could play an impact in thunderstorm development here too. However, since the best dynamics will be to our south, the storms that initially begin as supercells to our southwest may “bow out” as they move northeastward. This would be a more damaging wind threat. This will need to be monitored. At the very least, damaging winds and hail could be the major concern for us.

Stay tuned tomorrow for updates. If one of the aforementioned ingredients do not come together as forecasted today, the forecast itself may need to be adjusted. Make sure you have a NOAA weather radio handy tomorrow for alerts should the need arise.

 

For current weather information, Craig uses his Twitter account, @ytownwx. Follow him on Twitter for the latest severe weather information on Friday.

Warming Up

This weekend’s cold spell will be that of just recent memory as we progress through this work week. However, we will stay rather unsettled for the majority of it.

For your Tuesday, expect a cloudy and dreary day with some snow and rain in the forecast. Our high will make it to the upper 30s, so the light snow we see at daybreak will mix with rain in the afternoon. As was the case with the synoptic snow  this weekend (meaning large-scale snow area, not lake enhanced snow), there isn’t a lot of moisture available with the system. Therefore, I only expect an inch or so of accumulation. It could be, however, enough to slicken the morning drive. We’ll dry out for Wednesday but look for another round of precipitation Thursday. This should be all rain as we will top out back into the 40s.

It appears as of now the upcoming weekend will be dry. Stay tuned though for any updates with the forecast.

You can follow Craig on Twitter! His account is found @ytownwx