Eighteenth Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Shary has formed tonight in the western Atlantic, located about 350 miles south of Bermuda. Shary is the season’s 18th named tropical storm, a season that has equaled or exceeded the early and pre-season hurricane outlooks. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda as Shary is expected to pass near the island late Friday evening.

Shary is not the only tropical game in town. A well-defined low pressure center is located just to the east of the Windward Islands. This system has become better defined all during the day Thursday and has a good shot at becoming the next storm of the season. This one will directly affect the islands, and even Puerto Rico in the future even if it stays just a low pressure.

Richard Forms; U.S. Threat??

Tropical Storm Richard (the season’s 17th storm) formed Thursday afternoon in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea about 200 miles east-northeast of the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Richard has winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1006 millibars. Richard is having a tough time getting organized quickly at this time due to dry air, but conditions could become extremely favorable for Richard to become a decent size hurricane. However, the forecast path, which is still uncertain, will tell exactly how much strengthening is possible. If Richard stays offshore of the Yucatan, it could be stronger than if it would make a landfall. However, a majority (not all) of the models bring Richard into the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days. From there it remains to be seen if any of the US will be affected by the storm. So, for the mean time, stay here for the latest.

Another NW Caribbean Depression

Just as climatology would suggest, the northwestern Caribbean which hosted Hurricane Paula last week, has again flourished a new tropical depression. Tonight as of 11pm, Tropical Depression 19 has formed about 125 miles south of Grand Cayman Island with winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1006 millibars. The depression is causing heavy rains over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and parts of Cuba tonight, and will only move slowly over the next few days. Therefore, flooding is a possibility in these areas. The depression could become Richard by the weekend and move towards the Yucatan. Keep it here for the latest.

Heavy Rain in the Keys

Hurricane Paula is now a tropical storm due to stronger upper level wind shear. Paula will continue to weaken through the night Thursday into Friday. However, the center of Paula is close enough to the Florida Keys that heavy rain will affect the area tonight as Paula makes her closest approach. Radar data from this afternoon suggests that moderate rain will be felt in the Keys for the remainder of Thursday, so flooding is a possibility. Paula is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area this weekend, probably raining itself out over the mountains of Cuba.

Tiny Paula Strengthening Quickly

Paula has strengthened into a category two hurricane this afternoon, just 18 hours after being named a tropical storm. As of 1pm this afternoon, Paula has winds of 100 mph and a pressure of 981 millibars. Paula is an extremely tiny hurricane. Compared to Igor, who had tropical storm force winds over 200 miles from the center, Paula’s tropical storm winds extend only about 60 miles from the eye. Even more interesting, the hurricane force winds extend outward only 10 miles from the center. However, since Paula is an extremely small hurricane, rapid intensification remains possible (as we have seen this afternoon). Paula will be able to strengthen about another 24 hours or so before conditions become less favorable for development – as Paula is expected to begin steady weakening on Thursday. Hurricane warnings remain up for the east coast of the Yucatan, including Cancun. Remember though that since the storm is so compact, variable weather is expected. Winds can be 100 mph in one location, and 50 miles to the south, be around 45 mph. Basically, all locations in the warning area should be equally prepared. Outer rainbands will begin affecting the coast this evening. While it appears that a large dome of high pressure should keep Paula away from southern Florida for the next few days, there is much uncertainty regarding the final track of the storm. We’ll keep you updated on the latest.

Tropical Storm Paula Forms

Hurricane hunters went out and investigated the area of low pressure in the western Caribbean today and found a closed surface low and winds well in excess of tropical storm force. Based on their reports, Tropical Storm Paula has formed and is forecast to intensify into the season’s next hurricane in the next 24 hours. As of 5pm, Paula had winds of 60 mph and a pressure of 1000 millibars. Hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of central America from Punta Gruesa, MX to Cancun, MX. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of Honduras as well, since the rainbands are still affecting the region. Rain totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected in the mountains of Nicaragua tonight and tomorrow as Paula is only moving around 9 mph. Paula is not forecast to move a whole lot, but remain in the northwest Caribbean Sea for the next 5 days, but come close enough to the Yucatan Peninsula to bring hurricane conditions – hence the hurricane warnings being issued.

Hurricane #8!; Storm #16??

Otto, the season’s fifteenth storm and now eighth hurricane, continues to strengthen this afternoon in the open Atlantic well south of Bermuda. Winds have increased to 80 mph, and the storm has gotten larger in size as well. There is the potential for higher-than-normal wave action on the southern beaches of Bermuda and rain and waves over the northern Caribbean islands as Otto moves away.

In the southwestern Caribbean sea a broad area of disturbed weather has the potential to SLOWLY develop into the next tropical depression later this weekend. We will keep an eye on this one while Otto remains well away from the U.S.

Otto No Threat

Otto, the season’s 15th named storm, is moving slowly eastward over the western Atlantic ocean. Otto has the potential to become a minimal hurricane over the next day or so, but will continue to move away from land areas. The only threat Otto may pose in the next 5 days is to the Azores islands in the northeast Atlantic, but as an extratropical cyclone. Otto is a small tropical cyclone, so waves won’t be a big threat for the east coast as they were with Igor.

Watching the Caribbean

For the first time in over a month, we have had 2 consecutive days with no named tropical systems in the Atlantic basin. However, that may be changing this week as we watch a developing disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure has formed southwest of Cuba and is getting better organized slowly. No matter what comes from the low, a surge of tropical moisture will be affecting Florida and adjacent land areas.

Lisa Surprises While Matthew Floods

The tropics got very interesting on Friday as Lisa rapidly strengthened into the season’s seventh hurricane and tropical storm Matthew slammed into Nicaragua and Honduras with life-threatening flooding rains. While Lisa (80 mph as of 11pm Friday) will remain well out to sea, Matthew will stay inland over Central America then Belize and the Yucatan, creating heavy rains and the potential for deadly mudslides.