Location. Location. Location!

What do the words “location, location, location” mean to you? For many people, this is the old slogan from Disney. For meteorologists in the last 24 hours over the eastern part of the country, this was critical to the weather conditions for the day Monday.

As you are all aware, a winter storm warning was up for northeastern Ohio last night, as the threat of a large accumulation of snow worried local residents. Since trees have already begun blooming, plants are now growing, and spring is in full swing, the threat of heavy and wet snow could have proved damaging. The ingredients were all there. The jet stream had pushed south allowing for below average temperatures to filter into the area. A low pressure area was deepening and working up the eastern seaboard. One thing was missing on Monday in northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania though – precipitation. What was the problem???

Location, location, location!

Call your attention to the “L” just off the Jersey coast. These were the observations early this morning. That “L” is the center of the low pressure responsible for a deluge of rain up the east coast, and yes quite a bit of snow across parts of the interior northeast from southern New York state through the mountains of central Pennsylvania. The counterclockwise motion of low pressure systems in the northern hemisphere allowed the cold air to wrap around the low and push it southward into these locations.

In a report from Wunderground, some snow totals from today as of 7pm were: 10″ in Newfield, NY; 13.6″ in Laurel Summit, PA; 11″ in Sylvania, PA; 5″ in Aurora, WV; and 5″ in Keysers Ridge, MD.

If the center of the low pressure would have been where the models forecast it Saturday night, these snowfall totals could have easily been over eastern Ohio and western PA. As for the rest of the night, as the low continues to progress away from the area, there is still some moisture available for some lake-effect rain or snow showers to impact the area. In fact, as of 835pm, a band of light precip was extending from Ashtabula into northern Trumbull counties in Ohio and Erie and Crawford counties in northwest PA. Meadville, PA in Crawford county was reporting light snow and 34 degrees at 8pm. Even if this band does make it into the Youngstown area, it won’t be a problem.

Also, winds will continue to subside as the low moves away. It will remain breezy through Tuesday afternoon, but nowhere near as windy as Monday. We may see gusts in the 20 to 30mph range the first half of the day Tuesday.

Whether you were excited about getting snow and upset the system was farther east than it could have been, or were relieved because no snow occurred today, I want you to remember one thing: location, location, location! It makes a big difference in meteorology!

Late Season Winter Storm Taking Shape

Since we really didn’t have winter during winter, why not have it at the end of April?

While I don’t know the mind of mother nature, as a weather forecaster I’m trying. For the next 24 to 36 hours, that’s going to be a rather difficult task. As of 9pm this evening, a large area of low pressure was located over the Carolina coast and moving northward into the northeast. This low will deepen, and continue to tap into moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and wrap this moisture into the region.

We have already seen the outer fringes of this tonight as some light rain showers have begun. Right now the thermal profile in the atmosphere is still rather warm, so the precipitation is all rain. As the counterclockwise rotation continues to deepen in the low, more cold air from Canada will wrap into the region and continue to cool off the atmosphere with height. This will allow for precipitation to turn to snow on Monday over much of central and western Pennsylvania and extreme eastern Ohio.

Below is one of the computer models for late Monday morning. As you can see, eastern Ohio is located right on the outer edge of the precipitation. This is why a slight deviation from the forecast track can mean a very large difference in the snowfall.

There is a VERY LARGE difference between forecasting a winter storm in January or February than in late April. With the higher sun angle and warmer ground, forecasting snowfall accumulations is an even more daunting task than normal.

As it appears at this time, the heaviest snowfall will be over the mountains of central and northwestern PA, where as much as 18” of snow is possible. Here at the lower elevations, accumulations will be much less but this won’t lessen the impacts. The snow will be extremely heavy and wet. This coupled with the leaves already on the trees and strong winds expected, downed limbs as well as downed power lines are possible. Road conditions shouldn’t be as bad as it would be if this was the middle of winter. However, in the heaviest snow along with the strong winds, visibilities may be lower.

Forecast Snowfall Totals for Select Areas

Youngstown/Hubbard/New Castle: 3 to 6 inches of wet snow…primarily on grassy surfaces.

Pittsburgh and surrounding areas: 2 to 5 inches of wet snow…primarily on grassy surfaces.

Buffalo, NY: 4 to 7 inches of wet snow.

Mountains of NW Pennsylvania to Johnstown, PA: 1o to 16 inches in higher elevations…less at the surface

With winter storms of this magnitude, forecasts can change in a hurry. Stay tuned for later updates on the storm. For us here in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, a WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect from 4am Monday through 3pm Tuesday.

 

Craig is on Twitter! Follow him @ytownwx

Youngstown Winter Analyzed as Warm, and yes, Snowy

There’s an old saying heard in Youngstown: If you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes it will change.

From March 20 through the 22,  Youngstown saw record high temperatures, while on March 27, the area was under a freeze warning. Regardless of the weather on a day-to-day basis, one thing observed by many this winter was what seemed to be a lack of snow and above average temperatures.

Senior Alyssa Leith noticed something was different this winter, but in a good way. “The roads weren’t crappy. It feels weird that we didn’t really have winter, but I’m not complaining,” she said.

In terms of temperature, this would be an accurate description.

Bill Buckler, assistant professor of geography at Youngstown State University, said it was the sixth warmest winter since records began being recorded in 1897. In the final report issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service on meteorological winter [December to February], the average high temperature for the greater Youngstown area was 40.7 degrees – with the average low being 26.6.

This put the mean temperature for these three months at 33.7 degrees, 5.6 degrees above the normal mean of 28.1 degrees. The normal value of our average high and low are 35 and 21.3 respectively. “When we compare to normal, we’re comparing to the period from 1981 to 2010,” Buckler said.

Last winter, the Youngstown airport received 103.7 inches of snow. This season was different.

While a lot of students enjoy snow for recreation, driving to school in the snow is a different story.

Freshman Anna Cioppa commutes to YSU from New Castle, Pa. every day.  “Because I live 20 miles away, it was nice not to have to struggle driving in it,” Cioppa said.

For an average winter snowfall, surprisingly the Youngstown-Warren regional area was above normal this year. From December through February, the Youngstown airport received 49.9 inches of snow. This was 5.5 inches above the average of 44.4 inches. YSU received less snow in totals, but all official measurements, for the area, are recorded at the airport in Vienna.

Sophomore Chelsey Hammond had to carpool last winter because of all the snow. She wasn’t upset either at the difference between this and last winter. “I didn’t even have to wake up earlier to clean off my car every day. It was nice,” Hammond said.

The warm winter weather was caused by a La Nina pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which forced the jet stream to dip in the western U.S. and in Europe for the majority of the winter. This caused the rest of the country to be under a ridge, allowing warmer southerly winds to advance northward. Europe saw one of the coldest and snowiest winters in recent history. In fact, northern Italy reported the highest snow totals since the 1980s in early February.

Senior Nate Demetra wasn’t worried about the winter so much. He’s more concerned with the upcoming summer. “The biggest thing I’m worried about is an insect plethora in the summer.” Nate said. Whether that turns out to be the case is unclear.

However, Ohioans know that any nice days during the year must be taken advantage of. After all, the weather may change in five minutes.

Just in time for the Weekend!

We’ve had an absolutely incredible weather week in much of the eastern third of the country. Record highs have been broken from Minnesota to Chicago to the eastern seaboard, including here in Youngstown! In fact, we’ve broken multiple records this week. A fun stat I researched yesterday was that our low temperature dipped to 55 degrees Wednesday morning. Our average HIGH is 48 degrees – yes our LOW temperature was 7 degrees above our average HIGH. Awesome, right?

Well, yes and today we have another easy shot at breaking a record again. Set in 1938, our previous record stands at 75 degrees. Our forecast high for today is 80, so let’s add another new record to the list we’ve set this week.

Something’s gotta give, doesn’t it???

Well, for the weekend…….it will!

As I mentioned in my last post, a cut-off low pressure system is currently located over Texas and Oklahoma. Since it is “cut off” from the flow of the jet stream, it isn’t moving much and actually has been responsible for some severe weather in the southern Plains and southeast as well as a lot of flooding. It will begin to move towards us here in the Ohio Valley for…..yes, the weekend.

Friday will be mostly dry, except in the far west regions of Ohio. Towards evening and overnight into Saturday is where eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania get in on the action. Saturday and Sunday won’t be all day wash-outs, but definitely will see off and on showers and as the system exits, cooler air. Sunday’s highs will “only” be around 60 degrees. Before you start getting angry, that’s still 10 degrees above where we should be this time of the year.

You can follow Craig on Twitter! His account is @ytownwx

How Long will this Pattern Last?

With the Spring season now officially upon us, it doesn’t seem as abnormal to be forecasting a high of 80 degrees today, right? Not really…we’re still well above average and will most likely smash a record high today. The old record for Youngstown today is 74 set in 1976, so this will most likely need to be updated after today. With this long stretch of extremely warm weather for March continuing today, how long is it actually going to last?

Well, the answer will probably not please most of you. While you knew deep down it had to change at some point, the timing of the change is what is bad.

Here is 1 computer model for Friday night 8pm. You notice precipitation moving into the region from the west. This is in response to a low pressure system currently bringing severe weather and heavy rain to the central and southern Plains. This low is currently “cut off” from the flow of the upper levels of the atmosphere, so it won’t move much the middle of this week. However, once it gets going again, it will work into our region and leave us with a rather crummy weekend as it appears now. Also with the cloud cover and dip in the jet stream, cooler air will filter into the area. Don’t worry, our temperatures will still be 10 to 15 degrees above average.

While no major areas of precipitation are forecast through Friday night as it appears now, with the increased temperatures, we’re in a rather summer-like pattern. As we know from the past, sometimes in the summer an isolated storm or two will pop up from time to time in the afternoon. Therefore, we can’t rule out one of these on any given day. Other than that – ENJOY THIS!

 

You can follow Craig on Twitter. His account is @ytownwx

Spring Begins nex…wait, what?

The vernal equinox (first day of spring) technically is next Tuesday, March 20. This means it will officially be spring beginning at 1:14 am next Tuesday. Don’t tell that to anyone here, because for us in the Mahoning Valley – and the entire eastern two-thirds of the US, winter really never started.

I’m never one to take much stride in an 8-day forecast, and granted a LOT can change between now and next week, but here is one model for next week:

This has been a pattern all too common this winter, where the eastern US has had a ridge of high pressure and the western US has been under the influence of low pressure….generally speaking. This map basically shows that the eastern US will continue to be fed with southerly winds allowing the warm moist air from the southern part of the country and Gulf of Mexico to be fed into our area. We will soar to temperatures close to 30 degrees above average some days over the next week.

It’s March 14…and we’re approaching the end of the wint….nahhhhh! We didn’t really have winter, let’s just say it’s spring already! No need to get technical…..

 

You can follow Craig on Twitter! His account is @ytownwx

How Youngstown Escaped the Severe Weather of March 2, 2012

There are some days meteorologists never forget, and March 2, 2012 will definitely be added to that list. While many tornado surveys are still being completed, I’d like to discuss how it all happened, who was affected, and in the case of us here in Youngstown, how we were spared.

On Thursday afternoon, I released this Facebook status: “Warning you guys now, I will be talking about the weather A LOT in the next 24-30 hrs. Thought the system that brought all the tornadoes and severe weather yesterday across the country was bad???? Tomorrow may be awful.”

This was just one of those tornado outbreaks severe weather experts and meteorologists alike knew couldn’t be avoided. It was a textbook situation: a low pressure system and trailing cold front were moving out of the Plains underneath a strong upper level jet stream. A warm front developed and moved north through Illinois, Missouri, and Indiana allowing a surge of warm moist air from the above average sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico to fill into the region. The deep low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere allowed for increased rotation and all of these ingredients worked together to create what will most likely be the largest March tornado outbreak this country has ever seen. Forecasts were given quite a few days in advance, and this most likely saved “countless lives” in a report issued by USA Today.

The Weather Channel’s Dr. Greg Forbes puts together in graphic form how all the ingredients came together March 2, 2012.

By the end of the day, tornadoes had affected 10 states – from Indiana and Kentucky, to Virginia and Georgia. Perhaps the most devastating tornado of the day affected Henryville, Indiana. This is where the now “iconic” EF-4 tornado tore up an entire community. This tornado was estimated to have winds upwards of 175 mph. As of Monday night, 45 tornadoes have been confirmed in a report from Justin Kenney from NOAA. This number is expected to increase as more confirmations are reported after NWS groups continue to survey damages and validate original reports from Friday. Of these 42 – Indiana had 3, Virginia 1, North Carolina 2, South Carolina 1, Ohio 6, West Virginia 2, Kentucky 9, Tennessee 8, Alabama 7, Mississippi 1, and 5 in Georgia. The pictures at the end of the post just sample some of what these disasters are capable of.

Just how lucky did we get in the Mahoning Valley? 6 total tornadoes were reported in Ohio, with 3 deaths thus far in the state. These tornadoes were in the extreme southwestern part of the state. Severe wind and hail reports also littered extreme southwest Ohio. A line of heavy rain and some embedded thunder and lightning affected our region Friday night, and yes this was the same system that brought disaster to so many communities. While the threat for tornadoes was never forecast to be high for us, the forecast did call for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main threat. The warm front, which enhanced the moisture in southern Ohio ahead of the cold front, was a lot slower than forecast and made it through the region just before the cold front did. This was extremely fortunate for us in that the ingredients never made it this far north.

This graphic from TWC shows the warm front (in red) not quite making it into the Mahoning Valley at the time the most unstable conditions were present. This set-up was responsible for deadly tornadoes in southern Ohio, Indiana, and other parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

This tornado outbreak does show, however, that EVERY area in the country can experience a deadly day of tornadoes if the conditions come together. We are just now entering the prime tornado season. There is no doubt extended forecasts saved lives, and it is extremely important to follow local NWS offices when severe weather strikes. Regardless, over 35 people have been killed in this outbreak, including a toddler who died after being found in a field in Indiana amongst her whole family. (ABC News Story about Angel Babcock) Here in the Mahoning Valley, we were spared. We may not get so lucky next time, so it is important to always stay up on the latest forecasts during severe weather season.

Just a few pictures from Friday’s Deadly Outbreak

Henryville, IN (C) ChicagoTribune.com

School bus taken off its foundation in Henryville, IN © CBS

Man &  his pooch even though he lost everything else – W. Liberty, KY © David Mixner

Tornado damage in Meridianville, AL © The Huntsville Times

Spring Storm Threat Coming Early

In a winter that hasn’t really felt like winter at all, we have fast-forwarded to spring rather quickly. The last day of February featured a tornado outbreak in the midwest, from Kansas to Kentucky killing at least 12. Tomorrow will feature another classic set-up for severe thunderstorms and quite possibly another (worse than Wednesday) tornado outbreak. For us in the Mahoning Valley, this means an increased chance of thunderstorms again – with damaging winds the main threat.

A large strong area of low pressure is currently moving across the Rockies and will move eastward and eventually northeastward later tonight and into Friday. As the low deepens, it will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and aided by the low level jet stream, will create ripe conditions for an area of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The highest threat for this will be in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

This is the outlook issued this afternoon by the Storm Prediction Center. It shows in graphic form what I said in the last paragraph. For us in the Mahoning Valley, we will be still in the warm sector of the system, and thus will also have a threat for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Shear (or the change of wind direction and speeds with height in the atmosphere) will be the strongest over the areas in pink, but could play an impact in thunderstorm development here too. However, since the best dynamics will be to our south, the storms that initially begin as supercells to our southwest may “bow out” as they move northeastward. This would be a more damaging wind threat. This will need to be monitored. At the very least, damaging winds and hail could be the major concern for us.

Stay tuned tomorrow for updates. If one of the aforementioned ingredients do not come together as forecasted today, the forecast itself may need to be adjusted. Make sure you have a NOAA weather radio handy tomorrow for alerts should the need arise.

 

For current weather information, Craig uses his Twitter account, @ytownwx. Follow him on Twitter for the latest severe weather information on Friday.

It’s Armagedd……Oh wait, it’s just Snow

I’ve found it funny as the computer models have come together this week on the impending round of snow and cold, how people have been reacting. Let me rewind just few days over two years ago. The day was Saturday February 6, 2010. We woke up to anywhere from 15 to 20 inches of snow across the valley. Last winter, Youngstown reported 103.7 inches of snow.

However, this year we’ve “only” accumulated 37.0” which is only 3.1” below what we should be at this time in the winter. Since we have yet to see an accumulating snow event of over a few inches at a time, every time we hear the words “we have a round of snow coming” my phone blows up with, “Craig, how much snow are we going to get? Craig is it going to be bad out?” and others.

Main point here: once again this weekend, we’re going to see some accumulating snow, but it will fit right in with the systems we’ve had all winter long. We’ll see a quick shot at a few inches and it won’t really bother too many people. If I was predicting this 365 days ago, we’d simply take it with a grain of salt and say “oh, no big deal.” So, don’t worry about cancelling those weekend plans. Just be prepared to take a little extra time when things get slick.

Very light snow has begun here in Youngstown this afternoon. For awhile this morning, it seemed as if the slow movement of the storm system out of Canada would add a little to my forecast from yesterday. However, there is still not a whole lot of moisture available with this system, so a forecast of 2 to 4 inches still seems reasonable given the circumstances. Locally higher amounts will occur where we get the added lake effect snow, but this will obviously be closer to the lake, especially in extreme northeast Ohio and in northwest PA. We will see scattered snow off and on through Sunday.

The even bigger story will be the COLD temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. With the passage of the front, the air that has been trapped all season in Canada will find a home over the Great Lakes. With some added wind, our wind chills may fall below zero Saturday night and Sunday morning. Saturday’s highs will only be in the lower 20s with the scattered snow showers.

Will we Actually see Winter???

The groundhog saw his shadow last week, and thus promised six more weeks of winter. While statistics show the groundhog really is not all that accurate (read this for more info: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php#phil) maybe this was the “jump start” we needed for real winter weather.

Okay guys, don’t get your hopes up…I’m not predicting a major blizzard over the next week, but I can just about guarantee the temperatures later this week and into the weekend may actually be a little more winter-like.

As meteorologists, we often look at a few different computer models to determine temperature. Obviously, the longer out in a forecast period you go, the more uncertainty there is. However, this week it seems as if a few ingredients will come together to bring a more winter-like air mass into the region. The first clue is a cold front which is projected to come through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Behind this, two maps clue us in that a colder pattern will set up. The winds both at high elevations and at the surface will be coming out of the northwest (from Canada) and thus allow for temperatures to fall. However, as we progress towards the end of the week, ahead of another trough for this weekend, winds will shift back out of the southwest (warmer) and bring us back to the above average readings we’ve become all too accustomed to this winter.

As we head to the upcoming weekend, a very large trough will be impacting the Great Lakes and northeastern US. This is shown on the following map:

This map is now out of date.

In general on this map you can tell that there is a big dip in our region for the upcoming weekend. This tells us in general that temperatures will be colder as the air from Canada will be allowed to seep into our region. Just how cold this will be is shown in another map, the surface and 850 millibar temperatures. However, since it is only Monday, these can change through time by a few degrees, so I’m going to hold off on that…just in general, realize this weekend should actually feel like winter.

Temperature Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Tuesday:  Upper 30s.
Wednesday: Middle 30s.
Thursday: Around 40.
Friday: Upper 30s.
Saturday: Low to mid 20s.
Sunday: Around 30. (May see lows around 10 degrees Sunday morning)