How Youngstown Escaped the Severe Weather of March 2, 2012

There are some days meteorologists never forget, and March 2, 2012 will definitely be added to that list. While many tornado surveys are still being completed, I’d like to discuss how it all happened, who was affected, and in the case of us here in Youngstown, how we were spared.

On Thursday afternoon, I released this Facebook status: “Warning you guys now, I will be talking about the weather A LOT in the next 24-30 hrs. Thought the system that brought all the tornadoes and severe weather yesterday across the country was bad???? Tomorrow may be awful.”

This was just one of those tornado outbreaks severe weather experts and meteorologists alike knew couldn’t be avoided. It was a textbook situation: a low pressure system and trailing cold front were moving out of the Plains underneath a strong upper level jet stream. A warm front developed and moved north through Illinois, Missouri, and Indiana allowing a surge of warm moist air from the above average sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico to fill into the region. The deep low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere allowed for increased rotation and all of these ingredients worked together to create what will most likely be the largest March tornado outbreak this country has ever seen. Forecasts were given quite a few days in advance, and this most likely saved “countless lives” in a report issued by USA Today.

The Weather Channel’s Dr. Greg Forbes puts together in graphic form how all the ingredients came together March 2, 2012.

By the end of the day, tornadoes had affected 10 states – from Indiana and Kentucky, to Virginia and Georgia. Perhaps the most devastating tornado of the day affected Henryville, Indiana. This is where the now “iconic” EF-4 tornado tore up an entire community. This tornado was estimated to have winds upwards of 175 mph. As of Monday night, 45 tornadoes have been confirmed in a report from Justin Kenney from NOAA. This number is expected to increase as more confirmations are reported after NWS groups continue to survey damages and validate original reports from Friday. Of these 42 – Indiana had 3, Virginia 1, North Carolina 2, South Carolina 1, Ohio 6, West Virginia 2, Kentucky 9, Tennessee 8, Alabama 7, Mississippi 1, and 5 in Georgia. The pictures at the end of the post just sample some of what these disasters are capable of.

Just how lucky did we get in the Mahoning Valley? 6 total tornadoes were reported in Ohio, with 3 deaths thus far in the state. These tornadoes were in the extreme southwestern part of the state. Severe wind and hail reports also littered extreme southwest Ohio. A line of heavy rain and some embedded thunder and lightning affected our region Friday night, and yes this was the same system that brought disaster to so many communities. While the threat for tornadoes was never forecast to be high for us, the forecast did call for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main threat. The warm front, which enhanced the moisture in southern Ohio ahead of the cold front, was a lot slower than forecast and made it through the region just before the cold front did. This was extremely fortunate for us in that the ingredients never made it this far north.

This graphic from TWC shows the warm front (in red) not quite making it into the Mahoning Valley at the time the most unstable conditions were present. This set-up was responsible for deadly tornadoes in southern Ohio, Indiana, and other parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

This tornado outbreak does show, however, that EVERY area in the country can experience a deadly day of tornadoes if the conditions come together. We are just now entering the prime tornado season. There is no doubt extended forecasts saved lives, and it is extremely important to follow local NWS offices when severe weather strikes. Regardless, over 35 people have been killed in this outbreak, including a toddler who died after being found in a field in Indiana amongst her whole family. (ABC News Story about Angel Babcock) Here in the Mahoning Valley, we were spared. We may not get so lucky next time, so it is important to always stay up on the latest forecasts during severe weather season.

Just a few pictures from Friday’s Deadly Outbreak

Henryville, IN (C) ChicagoTribune.com

School bus taken off its foundation in Henryville, IN © CBS

Man &  his pooch even though he lost everything else – W. Liberty, KY © David Mixner

Tornado damage in Meridianville, AL © The Huntsville Times

And……Back to Winter

The winds of change have roared through the Mahoning Valley overnight behind the storm system responsible for the deadly tornado outbreak. We got lucky, as the warm front was much slower than forecast, and thus our moisture and instability were greatly lower than the dynamics to our south. This system has shifted our wind directions to the northwest out of Canada. As another system comes through late tonight, moisture will be again on the increase – this time in the form of snow.

This next cold front is currently approaching the region. As of Saturday afternoon, it was located through Michigan and Wisconsin. The front itself has little moisture to work with, but with lake enhancement, has been responsible for snow this afternoon as it has come through the upper midwest. This will be the same situation that will unfold as the system comes through our area overnight. Ahead of the front, don’t expect more than light snow. However, the lake will enhance the moisture behind it and should keep light snow in the forecast through Monday.

We may see an inch or so at max out of this system, enough to remind everyone that it still is the beginning of March. Temperatures will be (shockingly) below average, with highs on Sunday around 31 and 29 for Monday. The average high for Youngstown on March 4/5 is 41 degrees. Don’t worry, we will have a MAJOR warm-up for the middle of the week. Let the roller coaster begin!

Spring Storm Threat Coming Early

In a winter that hasn’t really felt like winter at all, we have fast-forwarded to spring rather quickly. The last day of February featured a tornado outbreak in the midwest, from Kansas to Kentucky killing at least 12. Tomorrow will feature another classic set-up for severe thunderstorms and quite possibly another (worse than Wednesday) tornado outbreak. For us in the Mahoning Valley, this means an increased chance of thunderstorms again – with damaging winds the main threat.

A large strong area of low pressure is currently moving across the Rockies and will move eastward and eventually northeastward later tonight and into Friday. As the low deepens, it will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and aided by the low level jet stream, will create ripe conditions for an area of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The highest threat for this will be in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

This is the outlook issued this afternoon by the Storm Prediction Center. It shows in graphic form what I said in the last paragraph. For us in the Mahoning Valley, we will be still in the warm sector of the system, and thus will also have a threat for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Shear (or the change of wind direction and speeds with height in the atmosphere) will be the strongest over the areas in pink, but could play an impact in thunderstorm development here too. However, since the best dynamics will be to our south, the storms that initially begin as supercells to our southwest may “bow out” as they move northeastward. This would be a more damaging wind threat. This will need to be monitored. At the very least, damaging winds and hail could be the major concern for us.

Stay tuned tomorrow for updates. If one of the aforementioned ingredients do not come together as forecasted today, the forecast itself may need to be adjusted. Make sure you have a NOAA weather radio handy tomorrow for alerts should the need arise.

 

For current weather information, Craig uses his Twitter account, @ytownwx. Follow him on Twitter for the latest severe weather information on Friday.

Warming Up

This weekend’s cold spell will be that of just recent memory as we progress through this work week. However, we will stay rather unsettled for the majority of it.

For your Tuesday, expect a cloudy and dreary day with some snow and rain in the forecast. Our high will make it to the upper 30s, so the light snow we see at daybreak will mix with rain in the afternoon. As was the case with the synoptic snow  this weekend (meaning large-scale snow area, not lake enhanced snow), there isn’t a lot of moisture available with the system. Therefore, I only expect an inch or so of accumulation. It could be, however, enough to slicken the morning drive. We’ll dry out for Wednesday but look for another round of precipitation Thursday. This should be all rain as we will top out back into the 40s.

It appears as of now the upcoming weekend will be dry. Stay tuned though for any updates with the forecast.

You can follow Craig on Twitter! His account is found @ytownwx

Now the Cold and Wind

Overnight as the arctic blast came in, we received 3 to 4 inches of snow in the Mahoning Valley. While the main snow is over, a few persistent lake effect snowbands have developed from Lake Huron and enhanced the Lake Erie squalls. This prompted the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for Trumbull, Stark and Mahoning counties through 4 pm and a winter storm warning for Portage and Summit counties until the same time (additional warnings and advisories can be found on the NWS Cle webpage on my blogroll).

In the warning locations, additional accumulation of 2 to 4 inches today is expected as those bands continue. For us in the advisory counties, light snow will be off and on but the primary effect today will be blowing and drifting of the snow which has already fallen. We may see an additional inch or so if we get under a persistent band.

As the air dries out this afternoon, the snow will come to a stop. However, the wind and the cold will continue. Our temperatures will fall to around 14 degrees overnight. With the winds, wind chills will be in the 0 to -5 degree range overnight, so bundle up! This is by far the coldest air of the season. We will “warm” to the upper 20s with scattered snow flurries and snow showers for Sunday.

 

Follow Craig on Twitter for more up-to-the-minute weather forecasts and details on Youngstown weather. Craig can be found @ytownwx

It’s Armagedd……Oh wait, it’s just Snow

I’ve found it funny as the computer models have come together this week on the impending round of snow and cold, how people have been reacting. Let me rewind just few days over two years ago. The day was Saturday February 6, 2010. We woke up to anywhere from 15 to 20 inches of snow across the valley. Last winter, Youngstown reported 103.7 inches of snow.

However, this year we’ve “only” accumulated 37.0” which is only 3.1” below what we should be at this time in the winter. Since we have yet to see an accumulating snow event of over a few inches at a time, every time we hear the words “we have a round of snow coming” my phone blows up with, “Craig, how much snow are we going to get? Craig is it going to be bad out?” and others.

Main point here: once again this weekend, we’re going to see some accumulating snow, but it will fit right in with the systems we’ve had all winter long. We’ll see a quick shot at a few inches and it won’t really bother too many people. If I was predicting this 365 days ago, we’d simply take it with a grain of salt and say “oh, no big deal.” So, don’t worry about cancelling those weekend plans. Just be prepared to take a little extra time when things get slick.

Very light snow has begun here in Youngstown this afternoon. For awhile this morning, it seemed as if the slow movement of the storm system out of Canada would add a little to my forecast from yesterday. However, there is still not a whole lot of moisture available with this system, so a forecast of 2 to 4 inches still seems reasonable given the circumstances. Locally higher amounts will occur where we get the added lake effect snow, but this will obviously be closer to the lake, especially in extreme northeast Ohio and in northwest PA. We will see scattered snow off and on through Sunday.

The even bigger story will be the COLD temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. With the passage of the front, the air that has been trapped all season in Canada will find a home over the Great Lakes. With some added wind, our wind chills may fall below zero Saturday night and Sunday morning. Saturday’s highs will only be in the lower 20s with the scattered snow showers.

Next Round of Snow…..and COLD!

In a winter where wintry headlines have been all too uncommon, we will certainly turn it around this weekend. But just how long will this pattern last?

I have been talking all week about the big Arctic invasion that will take place this weekend, and I have no reason to change my forecast now. We got an inch or so of snow yesterday, but that will be merely a distant memory as sunny skies and temperatures near 40 are forecast today. As Friday dawns, however a strong cold front currently located in southern Canada, will be moving south bringing with it a lot of the Canadian cold air which has been trapped there for most of the season.

The first part of Friday will remain dry and fairly average in terms of temperature. The chance of precip will begin any time after 3 pm. Since we will be in the mid or upper 30s, we may see light rain or a mix of rain and snow at first, but it will become all snow after dark. It looks as if we will stay with only 2 inches (locally up to 3″) by Saturday afternoon. This will not be a huge deal. If you’re traveling towards Lake Erie, we may see up to 5 inches there as we should get a little fetch off the lake for some lake-effect snow.

In the temperature department, Saturday night will be the coldest with Saturday and Sunday being cold for highs. Saturday we’ll be in the lower 20s, with temperatures dipping into the low teens Saturday night. Sunday, another weak system will come through bringing maybe a few scattered snow showers, but a bigger story will be a little more wind, with highs in the upper 20s. This cold spell shouldn’t last too long, as we are projected to be back into the upper 30s at the beginning of next week. Of course a lot can change with this, so stay tuned.

Enjoy your Thursday, all!

Updated Wednesday Snow Forecast

Well, as promised the snow has started over the Mahoning Valley this morning. As I said yesterday though, there isn’t a lot of available moisture for the day. That being said, we will be able to add up an inch or two before all is said and done, but as high pressure moves in later this evening, the snow will come to an end just as fast as it began.

For Thursday, we will see a pretty decent day, with highs near 40 degrees and a mixture of sun and clouds. There has been a lot of speculation about what will be happening this weekend with the cold and potential for snow. As soon as we get rid of this system for your day today, I’ll take a better look at the models and update a forecast for the weekend. At first glance though, it appears that the cold will have more of an impact than the snow will. However, in a winter that hasn’t seen much snow, if you like having to shovel the drive and look at it fall – you will most likely get a wish again this weekend.

Limited Snow Potential

The word “snow” is FINALLY back in the forecast here in the Mahoning Valley over the next 24 to 30 hours, but unfortunately (if you like snow) there isn’t a lot of moisture with the cold front that will be moving through.

The system will be moving in for the overnight period into your Wednesday morning, but should be over in plenty of time for the afternoon rush hour. We may see up to an inch in places away from the lake such as Mansfield, Akron, Canton and here in Youngstown, but that will be about all. Temperatures Wednesday will only be in the low 30s with the cloud and snow cover. We should warm up a little Thursday before that cold shot I was talking about yesterday, still forecast to occur this weekend.

 

 

Will we Actually see Winter???

The groundhog saw his shadow last week, and thus promised six more weeks of winter. While statistics show the groundhog really is not all that accurate (read this for more info: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php#phil) maybe this was the “jump start” we needed for real winter weather.

Okay guys, don’t get your hopes up…I’m not predicting a major blizzard over the next week, but I can just about guarantee the temperatures later this week and into the weekend may actually be a little more winter-like.

As meteorologists, we often look at a few different computer models to determine temperature. Obviously, the longer out in a forecast period you go, the more uncertainty there is. However, this week it seems as if a few ingredients will come together to bring a more winter-like air mass into the region. The first clue is a cold front which is projected to come through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Behind this, two maps clue us in that a colder pattern will set up. The winds both at high elevations and at the surface will be coming out of the northwest (from Canada) and thus allow for temperatures to fall. However, as we progress towards the end of the week, ahead of another trough for this weekend, winds will shift back out of the southwest (warmer) and bring us back to the above average readings we’ve become all too accustomed to this winter.

As we head to the upcoming weekend, a very large trough will be impacting the Great Lakes and northeastern US. This is shown on the following map:

This map is now out of date.

In general on this map you can tell that there is a big dip in our region for the upcoming weekend. This tells us in general that temperatures will be colder as the air from Canada will be allowed to seep into our region. Just how cold this will be is shown in another map, the surface and 850 millibar temperatures. However, since it is only Monday, these can change through time by a few degrees, so I’m going to hold off on that…just in general, realize this weekend should actually feel like winter.

Temperature Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Tuesday:  Upper 30s.
Wednesday: Middle 30s.
Thursday: Around 40.
Friday: Upper 30s.
Saturday: Low to mid 20s.
Sunday: Around 30. (May see lows around 10 degrees Sunday morning)