My Reaction: Science got in the Way of Sandy

By now we’ve seen the destruction left in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. The pictures don’t do enough justice to the pain and suffering that parts of the northeast have endured. Residents of New Jersey and New York have begun the seemingly improbable task of assessing the damage and cleaning up after one of, if not the most, devastating storms to hit this area of the country. Tempers have begun to flare over relief aid, the NYC Marathon, and other social and economical impacts following the storm.

One thing is certain: preventing tropical cyclones and these “superstorms” is all but impossible. We can’t drop a magic substance in the water to make the storm disappear, or change course. What we can do, however, is try to produce as accurate of a forecast as possible to warn residents of any impending danger.

As North Carolina meteorologist Tim Buckley pointed out in his reaction to the storm, “the forecast for Hurricane Sandy was nearly flawless.” The Monday before landfall (7 days) one computer model, the European forecast model, predicted a large storm impacting the northeast. While only one model, it was worth noting. As the week went on, all the models began to converge on the same catastrophic scenario – a large, “hybrid” storm would most likely cause a lot of problems somewhere in New England or the Mid Atlantic. (Don’t forget that word, “hybrid,” we’ll get back to that in a second).

Needless to say, the final result was indeed awful. Sandy met up with a blocking pattern in the Atlantic, not allowing her to move out to sea like so many other storms have in history. A very large trough was digging through the eastern US accompanied by a large cold air mass and a lot of jet stream energy. All of these things contributed to Sandy’s large size and extremely low atmospheric pressure, just to name a couple of things.

This is where, I believe, the bulk of the problems arose. In “scientific” terms, Sandy was forecast to become this “hybrid” storm, a combination between a tropical entity and a mid-latitude “nor-Easter.” This created a problem for the National Hurricane Center, who is apparently only allowed to forecast “tropical” systems. They issued a press release last Friday stating that when Sandy would transition into the hybrid storm, they would stop issuing advisories, and give that responsibility to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices.

The HPC and NWS offices issued “high wind warnings” and similar advisories instead of the NHC issuing “hurricane warnings” because of the forecast transition. Because of this, last Saturday, NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg did NOT issue any mandatory evacuations for ANY parts of the city. After much scrutiny from meteorologists using social media and other forecasters such as myself, it seemed like the mayor was downplaying the real threat, and Sunday morning, he eventually issued some evacuations. However, we are becoming aware now after the storm, many people did not heed these evacuations.

Why not?

The mayor talked about the “category one” storm surge, because in fact, Sandy was “technically” a category one hurricane. That’s what our Saffir-Simpson scale qualified it as, with winds of 80-90 mph. What the Saffir-Simpson scale didn’t say though, was that the storm’s pressure was SIMILAR TO a category 4 hurricane. I stress “similar” because every storm is unique, but for argument’s sake – there’s a ballpark number.

I believe it is the same reason why the mayor was hesitant to call for the evacuations in the first place. “It’s only a category one hurricane” and “we’re only under a high wind warning, we’re under those every so often,” I believe are two common reasons for this.

This brings me to the title of this entry. Yes, “scientifically” Sandy made landfall as a hybrid system and was only a category one hurricane prior to US landfall. Unfortunately, the public doesn’t care about technical scientific terms. Let me say that again; the PUBLIC (the people we as forecasters are meant to protect) DOES NOT CARE about scientific terminology! They want to know what Mother Nature is going to do to them, their lives, and their property.

Would people have acted differently if they were under a hurricane warning instead of a high wind warning? We really won’t know. BUT what I do know is I live in Youngstown, Ohio. I was under the same NWS alerts the people in New Jersey and New York were. Read that sentence a few times to yourself. Does this make sense to you? We had rain, winds around 40 mph, with a gust to just under 70 mph about 50 miles away from us. Why were we under the same warning as people who got winds over 80 mph and had a storm surge over 10 feet?

I believe we need to have either an updated Saffir-Simpson scale that takes ALL effects of tropical cyclones into the category (Isaac was only a category 1 hurricane when it made landfall in LA this summer and had a lot of surge as well, with little precautions done). I also felt as if we should have let “technical” definitions slide with Sandy’s landfall and take our public into consideration. Would issuing a “hurricane warning” for a hybrid tropical-midlatitude system break some man-made rule or something?

I’m only a student, so I can’t really judge professionals who have been in the business for many years. However, I just wonder what MIGHT have been different if different steps were taken to warn the public about Sandy. Sandy wasn’t your “normal” coastal storm. Many factors came together that have never really been seen before (heck, it SNOWED over three feet with this storm in places).

Everything is a learning experience. Today it was made public that the NY Medical Examiner reviewed the 38 deaths in NY and found that 33 of them were due to drowning. This is absolutely awful, and in my humble opinion, preventable, ESPECIALLY since the forecasts were just about spot on!

All critiquing aside, my thoughts and prayers go out to everyone who has suffered from this tragedy. If you would like to donate to the American Red Cross, here’s how:

Text SANDY to 90999   or
Call 1-800-Red-Cross

You can follow Craig on Twitter, @ytownwx
 Tim Buckley, mentioned in this post, is found on Twitter @TimBuckleyWX
Tim also has a Facebook page http://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistTimBuckley

Impacts from Sandy to Increase Overnight

So far today, it has just been your typical cool, cloudy, breezy, rainy Ohio day. As the evening goes on, however, we will see increased rain and wind as the center of Sandy makes landfall along the Jersey/Delaware shore.

High wind warnings and a flood watch remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon and evening to address this situation. While we will definitely escape the worst Sandy has to offer, here in the Mahoning Valley, we can expect at least gusty winds to 50 mph and flood-prone areas will most likely be affected. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are definitely possible.

Stay safe everyone! Be smart!

Say “Hi” to Sandy

After a week of going through every computer model disagreement to finally zoning in on a solution and seeing just what a powerhouse Sandy would become, it is time, unfortunately, for it all to unfold.

The following alerts remain in effect for the Mahoning Valley:

High wind WARNING from noon today through 4pm Tuesday.,

Flood WATCH through 8pm Tuesday.

Everything is in line as expected with the forecast. The heaviest rain and strongest winds will begin later this afternoon and continue overnight into the first part of Tuesday. Most of our winds will be between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts in the 40-50 mph range. During the overnight tonight we may see some gusts around 60 mph though. Near the lakeshore, winds can be near 70 mph at times.

While widespread power outages are not likely, at least over east Ohio, some places will lose power while winds pick up. Make sure you have flashlights, batteries, gas in your car, and cash with you as precaution should you be without power.

Issued by the National Weather Service……..

As of 4pm Saturday, the following alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service in Cleveland for northeastern Ohio:

A FLOOD WATCH is in effect from late SUNDAY NIGHT through TUESDAY EVENING

and

A HIGH WIND WATCH is in effect from MONDAY AFTERNOON through TUESDAY MORNING.

Stay tuned to YoungstownWX HQ and my Twitter feed, @ytownwx for updates.

Confidence Increasing in Major Local Impacts from Sandy

Hurricane Sandy continues to move up the East coast, currently located off the Carolinas. Sandy is expected to combine with a cold front and associated low pressure over the next 48 hours and create a large “post-tropical” cyclone. It is this end product that could provide some of the nastiest weather we have seen in the Mahoning Valley and western PA over recent memory.

There are still a few questions regarding the final outcome of Sandy, but confidence is increasing that we will have quite a bit of impact from the storm. The two main events will be rain and wind. Let me break down each of these for you.

Rain: The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will be the focus for scattered showers today and Sunday. As Sandy merges with this system, we will see heavier rain Monday through Wednesday, with Monday night into Tuesday possibly being the worst of the three days. If the center passes closer to us than currently forecast, we would see lower rain totals. Sandy will be a “hybrid” system, so not completely tropical. In a tropical cyclone, the heaviest rain and winds are close to the center. However, with Sandy, the storm is expanded and taking on both tropical and non-tropical characteristics. This means that the effects will actually be worse over a large area.

Wind:This brings us to our next concern, the wind. With the wind field of Sandy expanding away from the center of circulation, the pressure gradient between the storm and high pressure in the midwest will create a large wind field. While the strongest winds associated with the storm will occur near the coast where Sandy comes ashore due to the lack of friction, we are expected to see tropical storm force winds for a time, especially Tuesday. Most winds will be between 20 and 30 mph with gusts to over 40 mph at times from Sunday through Thursday. However, on Monday and Tuesday, sustained winds of 40-50 mph with gusts over 60mph will be possible at times. We will have to monitor this, and the National Weather Service has already discussed potential wind headlines to go into effect later this weekend.

Like I said, there are still a few questions regarding the final track of Sandy which would change our rain totals and wind speeds slightly. The things we do know though are that we will have a long duration event of wind and rain. While it won’t be raining every minute of every day today through Thursday, we will have heavy rain and strong winds at times. Here’s one current total precipitation graphic issued by the HPC. This puts our area right on the edge of the 3 to 5 inch total rainfall through Thursday.

I will try to post as much information as I can over the next few days as these details continue to come together. Remember you can follow me on Twitter, @ytownwx as I will be posting a lot about Sandy over the week.

Friday Morning Ohio/PA Sandy Update

As you probably have heard, Sandy is most likely going to be a storm for the record books. And most likely she will affect us here in the Mahoning Valley into PA next week. While a lot can and most likely will change by next week, I wanted to give you guys a brief update on what I’m looking into this morning in regards to Sandy.

I did my best to map out exactly what is happening NOW, so it’s time to talk about what this MIGHT mean for a forecast. The large “X” I have in the north Atlantic is what we refer to as a “blocking” pattern, which is preventing Sandy from turning out to sea. The large dip I drew in over the midwest is a trough in the upper atmosphere which will be the culprit for our drastic change in temperatures. This trough will aid in developing Sandy’s remnants into a large low pressure system over the northeastern US. Sandy is expected to be absorbed into that trough and become a hybrid low pressure system (combination between a tropical system and a mid-latitude low). With a high pressure system on both sides of this low, the pressure gradients will increase, aiding in the development of a large wind field associated with the cyclone.

What does all this mean for us? The exact track of the aforementioned scenario is what’s in question, and will have major implications for our weather. The consensus is that the storm will come inland over the Mid Atlantic into central Pennsylvania. However, there are still a couple of models that want to take Sandy over New England.

IF Sandy comes inland through PA, we will have enough warm air (and by warm, it’s a “relative” term – upper 40s instead of upper 30s) to keep most of the precipitation as rain. This is looking like the most likely scenario. Points west of us, such as Toledo to Cincinnati would then have the greater potential for snow. Also, the mountainous regions of West Virginia and west PA would be in line for a large amount of snow as well.

IF Sandy stays a little farther north and east of Youngstown, we may have a few inches of snow to deal with.

My “official” forecast for the Youngstown area now will keep the mention of rain and wind through Wednesday and possibly Thursday. It MIGHT get cold enough overnight to see some wet snow mix in. Winds could gust in excess of 50 mph at times during the first half of next week. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s during most of next week.

As I alluded to, a LOT can change over the weekend, so it is important to only use this information as a guide to possible impacts and planning accordingly. I will do my best to post another update this evening and a few times over the weekend.

The “Easy” Part of the Forecast

It’s been 24 hours since I first brought up the idea that now Hurricane Sandy (or what extratropical cyclone she will become) may affect the Mahoning Valley next week. Well, in those 24 hours nothing has gotten easier from a forecasting standpoint.

Both scenarios still exist. Sandy may exit quietly out into the open Atlantic and do no more harm than affecting the areas it will impact in the near future, such as Jamaica, Cuba the Bahamas, and Florida. The other one, which only one model had yesterday coming up the east coast, now has a little more weight. A few more models have come onto this solution.

This second solution would mean more “interesting” weather for New England and possibly the Mahoning Valley. We could possibly be on the backdoor side of the storm receiving wrap-around moisture (which with the cold would possibly be snow).

Spaghetti models (possible tracks) for Hurricane Sandy as of 12z Wed 24 Oct 2012

Regardless of what happens with Sandy, and yes we have PLENTY of time to monitor it – and a lot can (and will) change in the next week, we have a big pattern shift coming.

If you can, PLEASE take off work Thursday, it’s going to be close to a record-warm day. We will have high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies. That big trough that will have so much to do with Sandy will bring us a reality check for exactly what month of the calendar year we are in. By the end of this weekend, our highs will only be in the 40s and 50s.

That’s probably about the only “easy” part of the forecast for the next week, so get out and enjoy it!

Does OH/PA Need to Watch Sandy??

Ever since I got myself interested in meteorology as a kid, hurricanes have been one of my favorite weather events to track. So many people always ask me, “why hurricanes? We never get them in Ohio and Pennsylvania!.”

Well, usually, that’s true.

I take you back to Hurricane Isabel, in 2003. The center of the hurricane made landfall in the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then continued to move inland. On September 19th, the center of the remnants of Isabel went almost directly through Pittsburgh then northwest through Trumbull and Ashtabula counties. This brought a lot of rain to our area, and that September ended up being the 6th most wettest September on record at the Youngstown airport.

The remnants of Hurricane Katrina also paid us a visit in 2005.

While not common, the remnants of tropical systems do pay us visits in the Mahoning Valley and surrounding areas.

Today, as we watch the developments of Tropical Storm Sandy in the Caribbean, south of Jamaica, there has been a little hype over what the end of the weekend holds for her future. Most computer models take Sandy north into the Bahamas then curved out to sea. That warm weather we’re having this week will be erased this weekend as a large dip in the jet stream comes down and opens the door for cold air from Canada to sink down. This trough would be the one to kick out Sandy and keep her from impacting any areas close to home.  This would also be backed up historically. Most storms that have formed in this time period in the southern Caribbean sea have taken a similar path out to sea.

A few computer models however, show Sandy feeding off of the aforementioned trough, and bring her up the east coast as a large extratropical (mid-latitude) system. If you’ve heard anyone on the news talking about that “mega storm” the last day or so, this is what they’re referring to. If, and that’s a BIG “if,” this were to materialize, we would definitely feel the effects in eastern Ohio and west PA.

As I said earlier, history backs option one, and the only thing we would have to worry about here is a pattern shift from the 70s to the 40s and 50s for highs. I would still back this option as well. However, since the computer models forecasting the New England scenario have been fairly consistent the past few model cycles, we can’t exclude this possibility yet.

The only thing I can say right now is yes we do need to monitor Sandy as well as the trough digging out of western Canada today. Here’s a look at the “spaghetti” models as of the latest model cycle on Tuesday morning. Each line is one mathematical formula’s solution to the atmospheric conditions that are forecast to surround Sandy over the next week. It shows the general consensus that I talked about, and shows the few outliers.

Tropical Storm Sandy 12 Z spaghetti models Tue 23 Oct 2012

While it’s a rare occurrence, I get to monitor the tropics and how it might affect our area. You can bet I’ll be keeping you updated on the latest forecasts with Sandy!