For a forecaster, predicting a week in advance has its challenges, let alone 3 or 4 months. However, one question I get a lot, especially in the Mahoning Valley, is “what’s it going to be like this winter?”

Let’s try and tackle that question today, shall we? The graphic below shows how far from average the ocean temperatures are in the Pacific for the past month. Why does this matter? El Nino was predicted a few months ago to have been increasing by this time. (El Nino generally is a warming in the east equatorial Pacific) However, there has been no real warming over the past month, as shown below, and that may impact what this winter brings.

Change in Pacific SST anomalies during the last month. Courtesy: NOAA

With a warming of the equatorial Pacific, the jet stream in the northern hemisphere is affected. The jet stream is one atmospheric element that determines the strength and track of large storm systems. Another critical feature is called the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which influences temperature fluctuation and is one reason for cold spells and warm spells in both Europe and North America. The NAO isn’t predictable this early in the season, so we can only look to the Pacific for the primary way of forecasting long term.

So, back to the question at hand – what is this winter going to be like for eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. In previous months, with the onslaught of El Nino expected to influence the winter, forecasters including myself were expecting a greater chance of above average snowfall and cooler than normal temperatures, because of the active southern jet stream. However, since there hasn’t been any recent developments with El Nino, there is less certainty that this will happen for our winter.

I don’t want to make it sound like we won’t have a bad winter, but I also don’t want to say it’s going to be another “Snowmaggedon” year like 2010-11 was. Here’s what NOAA came up with for temperature and precipitation for the 3 month winter period, though:

Temperature probability for December 2012 – February 2013

Precipitation probability from December 2012 – February 2013

The Mahoning Valley through Pennsylvania from the NOAA predictions call for “equal chances” of above or below average temperatures and precipitation for the months from December 2012 to February 2013. Snowfall averages range from around 30-50 inches in the Mahoning Valley and parts of western PA, and from 60 to 100 inches in the lake effect areas of Cleveland to Erie.

In conclusion, there is no definite reason to believe this will be a bad winter, BUT if El Nino decides to wake up, we can have an active pattern set up. The intensity and frequency of lake effect snow also has its effects on snow totals for parts of the area.

Predicting a seasonal forecast is almost as accurate as shutting your eyes, spinning around, and pointing at one of the options. But know that you can come to ytownwxHQ for all of your winter forecasting information, and we’ll keep you ahead of any storms that occur the upcoming winter – no matter what it MIGHT bring.