As you probably have heard, Sandy is most likely going to be a storm for the record books. And most likely she will affect us here in the Mahoning Valley into PA next week. While a lot can and most likely will change by next week, I wanted to give you guys a brief update on what I’m looking into this morning in regards to Sandy.

I did my best to map out exactly what is happening NOW, so it’s time to talk about what this MIGHT mean for a forecast. The large “X” I have in the north Atlantic is what we refer to as a “blocking” pattern, which is preventing Sandy from turning out to sea. The large dip I drew in over the midwest is a trough in the upper atmosphere which will be the culprit for our drastic change in temperatures. This trough will aid in developing Sandy’s remnants into a large low pressure system over the northeastern US. Sandy is expected to be absorbed into that trough and become a hybrid low pressure system (combination between a tropical system and a mid-latitude low). With a high pressure system on both sides of this low, the pressure gradients will increase, aiding in the development of a large wind field associated with the cyclone.

What does all this mean for us? The exact track of the aforementioned scenario is what’s in question, and will have major implications for our weather. The consensus is that the storm will come inland over the Mid Atlantic into central Pennsylvania. However, there are still a couple of models that want to take Sandy over New England.

IF Sandy comes inland through PA, we will have enough warm air (and by warm, it’s a “relative” term – upper 40s instead of upper 30s) to keep most of the precipitation as rain. This is looking like the most likely scenario. Points west of us, such as Toledo to Cincinnati would then have the greater potential for snow. Also, the mountainous regions of West Virginia and west PA would be in line for a large amount of snow as well.

IF Sandy stays a little farther north and east of Youngstown, we may have a few inches of snow to deal with.

My “official” forecast for the Youngstown area now will keep the mention of rain and wind through Wednesday and possibly Thursday. It MIGHT get cold enough overnight to see some wet snow mix in. Winds could gust in excess of 50 mph at times during the first half of next week. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s during most of next week.

As I alluded to, a LOT can change over the weekend, so it is important to only use this information as a guide to possible impacts and planning accordingly. I will do my best to post another update this evening and a few times over the weekend.